Bayes Network Analysis of Trade Effects of Currency Unions and Free Trade Agreements
نویسندگان
چکیده
We investigate the effects of trade and currency unions on trade within the reduced form gravity model. The database is a standard database in this field for around 200 countries over the last fifty years. The statistical model we use is a Bayes network from the machine learning and the artificial intelligence research which generalizes many standard econometric models. The emphasis in this paper is on a simplified specification of models with discrete and continuous variables and on simultaneous equations time series models. The results indicate that trade and currency unions have substantially lower effects on trade than derived in previous empirical work which we reproduce as special cases of our statistical framework.
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